Texas Rangers: Case for a 6 Man Rotation

The Texas Rangers are set to enter 2025 with one of the most talented and deepest groups of starting pitchers, for them, in recent memory. They have a legit top of the rotation ace and eight guys with MLB starting experience but this is also a fairly unique group that could require a fairly creative plan to get them through the season. With several guys coming off significant injuries it’s likely that load management will be a priority so that as many guys as possible are available come September and October. Whether the plan ends up being a true 6 man rotation, piggy back starts or just skipping guys in the rotation, Bruce Bochy and Mike Maddux will have to find a way to make sure their staff doesn’t burn out in the regular season because make no mistake about it, this is a club that is built with the postseason in mind. At the moment there seem to be six guys vying for the traditional five rotation spots in Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford and Kumar Rocker. There could certainly be a late, low cost addition similar to Michael Lorenzen last year who could change all of this but for now let’s just consider these six as your rotation candidates.

If the club chooses to go with only 5 true starters you’d have to think either Gray or Rocker would be out with Gray going to the pen or Rocker to AAA, but a six man rotation is a much more interesting proposition. Of these six, only three of them would seem to be capable of true starter’s workload the entire season: Eovaldi, Gray and Bradford. Eovaldi and Gray both have their fair share of injury history but for the most part we know what we’re going to get when they’re on the mound. Evo will be borderline elite at his best and a Colby Lewis type bulldog at worst. He is about to turn 35 years old but has logged over 300 innings combined in the last two years. Gray, the whipping boy of the fan base for some reason, is a serviceable middle of the rotation pitcher and has started at least 19 games a season during his three years with the Rangers. Both of these guys are capable of taking the ball every fifth day if that’s the plan. Bradford, who’s about to turn 27, came somewhat out of nowhere last year and pitched very well over 13 starts. He had over 100 combined innings in 2023 and nearly 90 in 2024 so as long as he’s effective he should continue to be a mainstay in this rotation. He does have options available so he could be sent down to the minors but it would take a very poor spring for him not to open the season with the big club.

As for the other three guys, deGrom, Mahle and Rocker, this is where it gets interesting because they threw a combined 34 big league innings last year. Each member of this trio had Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2023 and returned for short stints last year. For deGrom, he’s in the conversation for best pitcher alive every time he’s on the mound but has an extensive injury history and hasn’t thrown over 100 innings since 2019. During the last two years he’s thrown just 41 innings combined and given that he’s signed with the club through 2027, it’s hard to believe they’d want to run him into the ground with a workload of 150-175 innings. Tyler Mahle was signed last off season with the expectation that he’d miss the first half of the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John. He was the first of this group to start throwing again and after just six minor league starts spanning 18 innings he was activated in early August. His return would last just 12.2 innings though as he’d spend the remainder of the season on the injured list with shoulder soreness. While reports are that he’s now healthy and ready for spring training, it can’t be ignored that he’s combined for just 38 innings in the last two seasons. The final member of the trio, Kumar Rocker is in a similar situation in his recovery from TJS but obviously much younger then deGrom or Mahle. In the three years since the end of his college career in 2021 though he’s thrown a combined 99 innings between independent leagues, minor leagues and the big leagues, with only 11.2 of those coming in Arlington last year. I’d be surprised if the club let these three guys throw much more than 125 innings during the regular season.

One thing to keep in mind is that whatever plan the Rangers come up with at the start or end of spring training will change multiple times throughout the season. Injuries are inevitable and you can certainly count on random bullpen games and a handful of spot starts from guys that casual fans couldn’t pick out of a lineup but fortunately the pitching depth is a strength of this squad. Jack Leiter and Dane Dunning would be the next two guys to step into a starting role and they both have big league starting experience. There are also rising prospects Emiliano Teodo and Alejandro Rosario who could force their way into the conversation with continued success in 2025. However the rotation shakes out, the Rangers enter the season with a talented group of arms who could end up being a top 5 starting staff in the league.