It’s become pretty clear that many within Rangers Nation have put the final touches on the 2024 season, and are setting their sights on what 2025 and beyond can bring. Recent moves and messaging from the Front Office seem to suggest much of the same coming from within the Rangers organization. All of that is fair and justified, but don’t tell that to the men on the field.
The Texas Rangers are playing their best baseball of the season lately, and it’s not even close for comparison. Look no further than one of the latest nuggest posted by Bob Nightengale on X:
Within that 20-game stretch, the Rangers have won every series except for their final series with Cleveland on August 23-25. They’ve won four straight series against the White Sox, Athletics, Yankees and Angels respectively. Adding drama to the mix, they won via walkoff in 3 of 4 consecutive games, highlighted by Wyatt Langfords grand slam in the 10th inning against the Yankees on September 3rd.
They’ve been lurking (or lulling) in the weeds all season, and now find themselves with a glimmer of hope to return to the Postseason. While their playoff chance currently sits at 0.6%, it’s nice to be excited about Rangers baseball again as we enter the final three weeks.
Even better for fans who want something to be excited about, making the playoffs wouldn’t be unheard of. For all intents and purposes, let’s play a game of hypotheticals!
As much as it pains me to type their name, let’s examine the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals. On this date in 2011, the Cardinals were 78-67 overall, trailing Milwaukee for the division lead by 6.0 games. There was only one Wild Card spot available in 2011, which was claimed by Atlanta at this time in 2011 (who were 84-62). The Cardinals, for reference, were 5.5 games back of Atlanta entering the final three weeks of the season.
Fast forward to the final day of the regular season, September 28, 2011. The Cardinals finished the season 90-72 overall, and still were 6.0 games behind Milwaukee for their division. Atlanta, however, finished at 89-73 dropping their Wild Card spot to the red-hot Cardinals. In 18 days, the Cardinals went 12-5 while the Braves fell apart going 6-10.
As history would show, the Cardinals beat the top-seeded Phillies 3-2 in five games, followed by a 4-2 series win against Milwaukee and the magical 4-3 series win against the Rangers in the World Series. (Trust me, it hurt just as bad now as it did in 2011.) If you want to confirm the data yourself, visit the link below.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/index.fcgi?month=9&day=28&year=2011
Looking at our current situation, let’s examine where the Rangers stand on September 10, 2024.
The Rangers are 70-74 overall, and currently sit 7.5 games behind the Astros for the AL West division lead. For the Wild Card (of which there are now 3 spots up for grabs), the Rangers are 6 games behind the Minnesota Twins. Also battling for that final Wild Card spot are the Red Sox, Tigers and Mariners (all 3 games back of the Twins), as well as the Tampa Bay Rays who are a game ahead of the Rangers.
The Rangers have 18 games remaining in their schedlue, most of which are on the road. Their schedule is relatively favorable given the remaining matchups:
(2) at Arizona (80-64)
(4) at Seattle (73-71)
(3) vs Toronto (68-77)
(3) vs Seattle (73-71)
(3) at Oakland (62-82)
(3) at LA Angels (60-84)
Not only are the Rangers playing their best baseball of the season, the argument could be made that several of the teams ahead of them are playing some of their worst baseball at the moment. The Twins are on a four-game losing streak, and 3-7 overall in their last 10 games. The Red Sox won last night, but are 4-6 over their last 10 games and still have games remaining against the Orioles, Yankees, Rays, and Twins.
Detroit, Seattle, and Tampa are all 5-5 over their last 10 games. Seattle has the Padres, Rangers (7 games), Yankees and Astros still on their schedule. Detroit has six games with the Orioles and three games with the Royals on their schedule, along with games against Colorado, Tampa Bay and the Chicago White Sox. Tampa Bay has two more games with their current series in Philadelphia, and then have Cleveland, Boston (6 games), Toronto and Detroit on their plate.
Good news for the Rangers is these teams will have to beat each other along the way, as well as battle some tough opponents outside of the Wild Card race. Also in their favor are a number of tiebreakers with which the Rangers would have in their advantage. Evan Grant shed some light on this earlier today on X.
Let’s also remember that the Rangers are getting Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer back, likely when they travel to Seattle this weekend. They’re also calling up top prospect, Kumar Rocker, to start the series opener in Seattle on September 12. Pitching hasn’t been the issue thus far this season, but it never hurts to get multiple Cy Young award winners back in your rotation. Plus, it’s going to be pretty fun watching Rocker and deGrom touch triple digits with their fastball, both making it look like the easiest feat in the world.
On the downside for the Rangers; they need five teams to faulter down the stretch compared to St. Louis only needing one in 2011. Not to mention the Rangers have 12 of their final 18 games on the road, where their record is a mere 29-40 overall.
Is it likely the Rangers will return to the Postseason in 2024? No. Is it impossible? No. The offense is beginning to click, and when a team gets hot late there’s no telling where that journey will go. Just ask the 2011 Cardinals, or even the 2023 Rangers for that matter. I’d say it worked out pretty well for both of those clubs.
