(F)arm Breakdown: Caden Scarborough vs the Bowling Green Hot Rods

We are back at it again on a Thursday night, watching Caden Scarborough pitching for Hub City. Tonight, Hub City played Game 2 of their South Atlantic League Playoff series against Bowling Green. Coming into tonight, Scarborough had not allowed an earned run since July, and has truly been lights out since his promotion to Hub City. His scoring streak unfortunately did come to an end, so let's go ahead and get into a refresher on Scarborough's background and talk about the good and the bad from his start tonight.

It was a bit of a turbulent start to the year for Caden Scarborough, as after June he had an ERA of 4.23, and had not yet had an outing where he pitched beyond the 4th inning. However, that was hardly concerning, as you could certainly see the flashes of the ++ traits that had the Rangers sign Scarborough for an over-slot $515,000 after drafting him in the 6th round of the 2023 draft. Scarborough was a pitcher who flew under the radar for most of his high school career, but the Rangers loved his projectable frame and were able to lure him away from his Dallas Baptist commitment.

After June is when Scarborough went on an absolutely torrid run. In July, he posted a 1.40 ERA and only allowed 3 runs, 3 walks, and had 23 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. In August, he posted back-to-back scoreless outings of 6 and 5 innings respectively which led to Scarborough earning Carolina League Pitcher of the Week honors before earning a promotion to A+ Hub City. He put on a show in his Hub City debut, striking out 9 in 5 innings, only allowing 1 hit and 1 walk. Scarborough's next 2 starts were just as successful, as he threw 8 combined innings, allowing 0 runs, 5 hits, 1 walk, and picking up 10 strikeouts. In the month of August, Scarborough logged 20 innings. He put up an ERA of 0.00, WHIP of 0.45, opponents hit .077, and he struck out 27 while walking only 4 across both Hickory and Hub City.

Scarborough struggled mightily with command during his 2024 debut season, as he put up a 17% walk rate in his 10.1 innings; a season shortened by a strained lat issue. Coming into 2025 however, it was apparent that Scarborough was primed for a breakout year. He added 30 pounds to his 6-foot-5 frame, and it came with increased velocity on his fastball. He went from sitting around 89-91 to now regularly hitting 92-95 topping out at 97, and there's still more velocity to be had as he continues to fill out his frame. Scarborough's fastball shines due to his elite extension (6.7'), as well as the carry and run he's able to generate from his low release height (5.2'). He has a sweeper that can sometimes be inconsistent in shape, but it's improved tremendously over just this one season. He averages around 82 mph on the pitch, and it grades out above average with potential to be ++ and he's able to locate it very well. His third pitch is a splitter he averages 84 on and has been getting better and better as the year's gone on. His splitter has a bit of an inconsistent shape as to be expected, but there are moments where you really can see the depth he's able to achieve. At the moment it's more of a soft contact pitch vs chasing whiffs, but because of the arm speed Scarborough is able to generate, the potential is there and I'm excited to see where it goes from here.

Now, let's get into the inning-by-inning, batter-by-batter, and pitch-by-pitch breakdown of Caden Scarborough’s debut start against the Bowling Green Hot Rods:

Pitch Usage:

Fastball: 55.6%
Sweeper: 37.0%
Splitter: 7.4%

Pitch Movement:

Fastball: 13” iVB | 15” HB |
Sweeper: -1” iVB | 16” HB |
Splitter: 3” iVB | 10” HB |

1st Inning

AB No. 1: 

Sequence: 
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Fastball (0-2, Foul)
Splitter (1-2, Ball)
Fastball (In play, out)
Result: Line-out (L7)

AB No. 2:

Sequence:
Sweeper (0-1, Called Strike)
Sweeper (0-2, Foul)
Sweeper (In play, no out)
Result: Single

AB No. 3: 

Sequence: 
Fastball (1-0, Ball), Runner steals 2nd
Sweeper (1-1, Called Strike)
Sweeper (2-1, Ball)
Fastball (In play, out)
Result: Line-out (L9), Runner advances to 3rd

AB No. 4:

Sequence: 
Fastball (0-1, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (1-1, Ball)
Sweeper (2-1, Ball)
Fastball (3-1, Ball)
Sweeper (3-2, Called Strike)
Sweeper (4-2, Ball)
Result: Walk

AB No. 5:

Sequence: 
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Sweeper (In play, out)
Result: Pop-out (P6)

Inning Totals: 
4/5 first pitch strikes | 19 pitches 12 strikes

Analysis:
Interesting start to this one for Scarborough. He started off the inning really strong and then allowed a bloop hit to right field, and it just became a bit more of a grind from there. In his 13 innings since joining Hub City, Scarborough has only 2 walks to his name, but he allowed a 2 out walk in this 1st inning tonight. I don't think I agree with the 3-2 pitch selection of sweeper by Moore, but it does show me pretty early on that Scarborough does not trust his splitter in a 3 ball count yet. Regardless, I think especially after a 3-1 sweeper landed for a strike, that a fastball up and inside is the correct pitch for that at bat. Scarborough did well to rebound from the walk however, and got a quick pop-out to end the frame.

2nd Inning

AB No. 6: 

Sequence: 
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Sweeper (In play, no out)
Result: Single

AB No. 7:

Sequence: 
Fastball (In play, out)
Result: Fly-out (F7)

AB No. 8: 

Sequence: 
Splitter (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (1-1, Called Strike)
Sweeper (In play, runs)
Result: Home Run, 2 runs score

AB No. 9:

Sequence:
Sweeper (0-1, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (1-1, Ball)
Fastball (1-2, Called Strike)
Fastball (2-2, Ball)
Sweeper (3-2, Ball)
Fastball (4-2, Ball)
Result: Walk

AB No. 10:

Sequence:
Fastball (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (1-1, Called Strike), Runner steals 2nd
Fastball (1-2, Swinging Strike)
Splitter (2-2, Ball)
Fastball (2-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

AB No. 11:

Sequence:
Sweeper (0-1, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (1-1, Ball)
Sweeper (In play, out)
Result: Pop-out (P4)

Inning Totals:
4/6 first pitch strikes | 20 pitches 12 strikes

Analysis:
Well that was definitely unfortunate. Caden Scarborough surrendered his first 2 runs since joining Hub City on a 2 run home run off a hanging sweeper. In fact, that's the first home run Scarborough has allowed since July. So what went wrong? For starters, Scarborough has so far struggled this evening with throwing his fastball on the outside edge for strikes. He's been a little too inconsistent with it, and it's been running too much arm-side. If there's one thing that this game is confirming for me, it's that Scarborough assuredly needs another pitch that he can throw consistently for strikes. Whether it's a cutter, sinker, etc. he just needs something besides his fastball that he can use when he's behind in the count or when runners are on base. Scarborough has been limited to around ~65 pitches per game since his promotion to Hub City, so with him at 39 pitches after 2 innings, we'll see if Scarborough is able to get some quick outs to get deeper into the game.

3rd Inning

AB No. 12:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Swinging Strike)
Sweeper (1-1, Ball)
Fastball (2-1, Ball)
Sweeper (2-2, Called Strike)
Sweeper (3-2, Ball)
Fastball (4-2, Ball)
Result: Walk

AB No. 13:

Sequence:
Runner to 2nd on Scarborough throwing error on pick-off attempt
Fastball (1-0, Ball)
Sweeper (In play, out)
Result: Pop-out (P5)

AB No. 14:

Sequence:
Splitter (In play, out)
Result: Ground-out (3U)

AB No. 15:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Fastball (0-2, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (1-2, Ball)
Sweeper (2-2, Ball)
Fastball (2-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

Inning Totals:
3/4 first pitch strikes | 14 pitches 7 strikes

Analysis:
Well, it wasn't pretty, but it was undoubtedly Scarborough's best inning of the game. Starting off with a lead-off walk is never ideal, but you certainly don't want to give them 2nd base for free before you even throw the 1st pitch to the next batter. I must say though, Scarborough once again impresses me with the way he's able to just trash anything negative that happens to him in his mind, and keeps his focus on the mound. It was much more efficient from Scarborough in the 3rd, and hopefully he can keep that up for a couple more clean innings.

4th Inning

AB No. 16:

Sequence:
Fastball (In play, no out)
Result: Double

Inning Totals:
1/1 first pitch strikes | 1 pitches 1 strike

Analysis:
Yeah, that wasn't really what I had in mind to be honest. I honestly am not mad at the way this "inning" went. Scarborough threw a 1st pitch fastball, and I thought it was a good pitch on the inner third. Sometimes, the batter puts a good swing on a good pitch and you just have to tip your cap, and that's what I think happened here. That runner ended up coming around to score to close Scarborough's line. All things considered, I would consider this as a disappointing performance from Scarborough. Although, it's a bit unfair to say that since the expectations surrounding Scarborough have reached astronomical levels due to the results he's put up. It's not a knock on Scarborough in the slightest, but it's one I'm sure he'd love to have back.

FINAL LINE:

3+ innings
4 Hits
3 Runs
3 Walks
2 Strikeouts
54 Pitches || 32 Strikes (59.3%)
12/16 First Pitch Strikes (75.0%)

Final Thoughts:
It's uncertain at this point if this is the last game of the year for Scarborough. Hub City is still able to advance to the next round in the playoffs, so there is the chance that Scarborough pitches against Brooklyn in some capacity. Regardless, this is definitely an evening Scarborough would like to have back. The night really came down to two big things for Scarborough: fastball command, and lack of trust in his splitter. Those two things are absolutely things that play off each other as well. Scarborough's lack of faith in his splitter led him to become a 2 pitch pitcher too often tonight. And when your fastball command is lacking, it's going to be a struggle.

This game really is a good showcase though of what Scarborough needs to improve upon this offseason. He needs to add to his arsenal, and he needs to improve his splitter consistency. I think he landed just 1 splitter for a strike tonight. Every other splitter he threw had insane arm-side run, but he just had no feel for it inside the zone. I've watched a lot of Caden Scarborough this year, and I feel confident in saying that he's at his best when he's able to land his splitter in the zone to elicit soft contact. It doesn't need to have crazy run or heavy depth to be an effective pitch. He only uses his splitter around 10% to both righties and lefties, so I don't want to harp too hard on it; I just think that's definitely something on the offseason agenda.

This is the first time Scarborough has had 3 walks in a game since his 1st start of the year back in April. I'm not worried in the slightest at the dip in command this game, because the sample size over the year is so large in showing the command improvements Scarborough has made this year. In his 13 innings with Hub City before tonight, Scarborough had 19 strikeouts to 2 walks with a .062 WHIP. That's who Caden Scarborough is. I say this simply because it seems too often that prospects are being allowed less and less to have a tough outing. Baseball is hard, prospects are going to have bad games, nobody is perfect, and growth is not linear. I don't want the tone of this piece to be too negative, because I really do think it wasn't as bad of an outing for Scarborough as the box score might suggest. Scarborough is an incredible talent, and the only reason this would be classified as a "rough" outing is because of the incredibly high standards Scarborough has set for himself this year. He will absolutely be just fine.

Stay tuned at The Prospect Times and we'll keep you updated on the Texas Rangers farm system.