Just over seven months ago, the Rangers were nearing the end of Spring Training and looking ahead towards a 2024 season in which they had one ultimate goal: Repeat as Champions. At that time (March 20th to be specific) I submitted my predictions for the 2024 season, which you can review for your own curiosity.
I’ll admit my confidence in the team was at an all-time high, but why wouldn’t it be? The Rangers came into 2024 with essentially the same roster that won the World Series in 2023. They only lost a few key players from their title run, inlcuding Aroldis Chapman, Mitch Garver, Austin Hedges and Robbie Grossman. The bullpen faults had been addressed by signing David Robertson and Kirby Yates to one-year deals. Tyler Mahle joined the rotation, though he would be a late arrival to the team after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The same would be true of Jacob deGrom, and Max Scherzer was on track for an early May return from his injuries.
Looking the roster over, along with the mid-season acquisitions they would get in the starting rotation, there wasn’t a doubt in my mind that the Rangers would return to the postseason and defend their title. And then….the 2024 season happened.
It’s hard to say what went wrong in 2024, besides everything. The offense didn’t just fall off from 2023, but rather took a nosedive in productivity. Adolis Garcia was a shell of his 2023 self, and even looked to have some difficulties in the field where he won a Gold Glove the year prior. Josh Jung took a fastball off his wrist in Tampa during the first week of games and found himself out of the lineup for several months. Seager and Semien were good, but not 2023 good, and much of the same could be said for everyone else.
For reference, here were my offensive stat line predictions for 2024:
(HR, RBI, BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Marcus Semien (21 HR, 90 RBI, .288/.379/.456/.794)
Corey Seager (41 HR, 108 RBI, .302/.388/.640/1.028)
Wyatt Langford (19 HR, 71 RBI, .244/.303/.421/.724)
Adolis Garcia (45 HR, 111 RBI, .255/.344/.523/.867)
Evan Carter (20 HR, 68 RBI, .282/.370/.326/.696)
Josh Jung (22 HR, 75 RBI, .274/.332/.459/.779)
Jonah Heim (19 HR, 89 RBI, .261/.320/.441/.761)
Ezequiel Duran (18 HR, 50 RBI, .270/.316/.444/.760)
Leody Taveras (17 HR, 52 RBI, .265/.310/.417/.727)
Here were the actuals:
Marcus Semien (23 HR, 74 RBI, .237/.308/.391/.699)
Corey Seager (30 HR, 74 RBI, .278/.353/.512/.864)
Wyatt Langford (16 HR, 74 RBI, .253/.325/.415/.740)
Adolis Garcia (25 HR, 85 RBI, .224/.284/.400/.684)
Evan Carter (5 HR, 15 RBI, .188/.272/.361/.633)
Josh Jung (7 HR, 16 RBI, .264/.298/.421/.719)
Jonah Heim (13 HR, 59 RBI, .220/.267/.336/.602)
Ezequiel Duran (3 HR, 20 RBI, .246/.288/.321/.609)
Leody Taveras (12 HR, 44 RBI, .229/.289/.352/.641)
I should have included Nathaniel Lowe on my predictions as he was likely to the main option at first base. For Lowe, it was a solid season defensively (earning a finalist selction for the AL 1B Gold Glove Award), but his power dipped through a majority of the season.
Wyatt Langford was the only one that came close to my predictions. While it was a slow start for Langford, he turned it on late and looks to be a top returner for 2025. Evan Carter battled a reoccuring back injury that saw his batting average plummet below .200, and ultimately removed him from the 2024 season.
Andrew Kizner didn’t last the full season before being designated for assignment on August 6th, and ultiamtely replaced by Carson Kelly via trade with the Detroit Tigers. Robbie Grossman was acquired back to the team from the Chicago White Sox mid-season, but was later sent to Kansas City via waivers.
Behind the plate, Jonah Heim took some backwards strides coming off a season in which he was the AL Starting Catcher in the All-Star Game, along with winning the AL Gold Glove at the catcher position. In 2024, it was most certainly *not* Heim Time, with the notable exception of his walkoff hit on Opening Night.
His RBI production dropped almost half of what it was in 2023, and his final stat line was a mere .220/.267/.336/.602. Heim was also not nearly as effective behind the plate defensively as in year’s past, making the catching competition even more interesting for 2025 and beyond.
On the opposite side of the ball, the pitching staff had their moments with the bullpen being the suprise positive of the 2024 season.
Kirby Yates was arguably the best signing value for any team in 2024, proving to be one of the best closers in the league. In his 61 innings pitches for the Rangers, Yates posted a 7-2 record and the 2nd best ERA amongst all closers at 1.17. Only Emmanuel Clase posted a better season at the closing positition boasting a 0.61 ERA over 74 innings. For Yates, he led the league in SV% at 97.1% with a 0.74 WHIP and .113 BA against. All in all, Yates finished 2024 with 33 saves in 34 save attempts.
Add David Robertson to the list of top value signings for the Rangers, proving his worth getting out of some impressive jams along the way. As far as I’m aware, he’s the only pitcher in all of baseball this season to strike out the Dodgers trio in successive order (Betts, Ohtani, Freeman), and he did it twice! His 3.00 ERA doesn’t jump off the page at you, but he was healthy all season and provided the Rangers with 72 solid innings of relief which they desperately needed.
On the bullpen topic, Urena, Leclerc, and Sborz all had great seasons, though Sborz battled a nagging injury through most of 2024. Jacob Latz posted a 3.71 ERA over 43.2 innings, and newcomer Andrew Chafin gave the Rangers 19 solid innings of relief after coming over from Detroit. Grant Anderson, Jonathan Hernandez, Brock Burke, Yerry Rodriguez and others played their part in the season, but all struggled mightily.
Walter Pennington might be one bright spot for the upcoming season as he put together solid outings after coming over from Kansas City. Tie him in with Marc Church and Gerson Garabito, the Rangers might have something to be excited about next season.
Nathan Eovaldi headlined the starting rotation, and set himself up for a nice payday this offseason going 12-8 with 3.80 ERA over 170 innings pitched. He battled some injuries along the way, but anchored the rotation that was pretty solid all season long considering the team’s overall record.
Cody Bradford looks to be the real deal, though injuries plagued his 2024 season as well. Bradford finished with a 3.54 ERA, though I estimate that could drop significantly in a healthy season. The same can be said for Tyler Mahle who was solid in the few starts he saw this past season, but really needs a full Spring Training to get his mechanics ironed out.
The book is still out on Jon Gray and Dane Dunning after a disappointing 2024 season. The theme of the rotation was injuries, and that certainly fit the mold for these two starters. Gray had flashes of brilliance, as did Dunning, but ultimately the walks and runs against them began to pile on.
While the stat line won’t show it, Andrew Heaney was really good, and I saw him as one of the better options for the Rangers all season. The offense did nothing to provide Heaney any run support in several of his starts this season. In games that Heaney started, the Rangers were 14-18 overall, with an average run support of 3.8 runs per game. Not great considering he held opposing teams to an average of 2.38 runs/game.
Where do we go from here? We as Chris Young and company noted in their end of the year press conference, there is a resounding confidence in the core players returning in 2025, and excitement with the younger talent in the farm system. Injuries and underperforming seasons put the Rangers behind the eight ball early in 2024, and never really went away. All is not lost, however, as key players will return healthy in 2025, and free agency is looming. The Rangers may not be big spenders this offseason, but they certainly won’t settle for another season not making the postseason.
