Get to know the next up and coming arm in the rangers farm system: Leandro Lopez

A pitch-by-pitch breakdown of Leandro Lopez’s start last night against the Winston-Salem Dash:

I watched every pitch of Leandro Lopez’s start last night. So, who is Leandro Lopez? Where did he come from? Why is he bursting onto the scene this year? What does his future look like? Let’s talk about his origins, and get into his outing last night and my observations of each at bat.

Leandro Lopez (the artist formerly known as Leandro Calderon) is a right-handed pitcher out of the Dominican Republic who signed in the Texas Rangers 2021 international free agent class. He spent the ’21 and ’22 seasons playing in the Dominican Summer League. After posting impressive 2022 numbers, he played stateside in 2023 at Single-A Down East where he finished the year with a 3.32 ERA in 57 innings pitched, along with 79 strikeouts to 38 walks. An injury riddled 2024 limited him to only 13 innings, but he's come back in 2025 with a vengeance. So far through the year he's posted a 1.99 ERA in 58.2 innings with 68 strikeouts to 23 walks. He's also limiting hitters to a .198 batting average against, and a 1.09 WHIP.

Lopez sports a 5 pitch mix, but he usually sticks to a main 4 of fastball, sinker, slider/cutter, and a curveball. He also has a changeup that's coming along, but it's mainly those 4 that he throws most often. He'll get up to 98 on both his fastballs, but usually sits around 94-96. His gyro cutter/slider (whichever you want to call it) sits in the high 80's, and his 3,000 RPM curveball ranges anywhere from 79 to 84. If you were to just watch his mechanics in the form of a silhouette, the first name I'm sure that would pop up for most who are plugged into the Rangers farm is Winston Santos. They both have a very smooth repeatable delivery and prefer to work fastballs up and finish with breaking balls low. To further put into perspective what Lopez is doing this year, I want to pull up some stat comparisons from his time this year in High A to what top prospect Alejandro Rosario put up last year:

I don't bring up Rosario to make a direct comparison, as they're completely different pitchers. I more-so want to create a frame of reference for what the highly regarded Rosario did versus similar competition last year. Some of my takeaways from this stat comparison are:

• Alejandro Rosario is really really really good at baseball.
• They have very similar WHIPs, but Rosario clears Lopez in the FIP comparison while Lopez gets the nod for ERA.
• For Lopez to take the next step, he needs to tone down the walks. His strikeout numbers are amazing, but his command is what causes his FIP to elevate while he still has an impressive ERA. That's not to say that he needs to reach Rosario's elite command level, but even getting to Winston Santos's 7.4 BB% would be a great next step for him.

One final little anecdote before we get into the outing: This season, Leandro Lopez is 1 of 2 pitchers that sport a 50% GB%, 14%+ SwStr rate, AVG against below .200, and a sub 10.5% BB%. The other pitcher is Rangers #9 prospect (According to Baseball America) David Davalillo. If you're looking for the next diamond in the rough prospect, look no further than Leandro Lopez. Now let's talk about how he did last night:

AB No. 1:

Sequence:
Fastball (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (2-0, Ball)
Slider (2-1, In play, out)
Result:
Groundout (3-1)

AB No. 2:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Curveball (0-2, Swinging Strike)
Slider (0-3, Called Strike)
Result:
Strikeout (ꓘ)

AB No. 3:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Foul)
Fastball (1-1, Ball)
Sinker (2-1, Ball)
Slider (2-2, Swinging Strike)
Curveball (2-3, Called Strike)
Result:
Strikeout (ꓘ)

Inning Totals:
2/3 first pitch strikes // 11 pitches 7 strikes

The night could not have started off better for Leandro. The first batter of the game he missed arm-side with a couple fastballs before getting a groundout to first base. He then followed that up with a strikeout looking on 3 pitches to White Sox #18 prospect, Jeral Perez. And if that wasn’t impressive enough he followed it up with another strikeout looking to #3 prospect, Braden Montgomery on a curveball that started chest high and dropped right into the zone. It was an incredibly dominant inning from Lopez, and it seemed like he was in for another incredible outing.

AB No. 4:

Sequence:
Sinker (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (2-0, Ball)
Slider (2-1, Called Strike)
Slider (3-1, Ball)
Fastball (4-1, Ball)
Result:
Walk

AB No. 5:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Slider (1-1, Ball)
Slider (1-2, Swinging Strike)
Slider (1-2, Foul)
Fastball (1-2, Foul)
Curveball (1-2, In play, out)
Result:
Groundout (5-3)

AB No. 6:

Sequence:
Slider (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (2-0, Ball)
Curveball (2-1, Swinging Strike)
Slider (2-2, Swinging Strike)
Slider (2-3, Swinging Strike)
Result:
Strikeout (K)

AB No. 7:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Fastball (1-1, Ball)
Sinker (1-2, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (1-2, In play, run)
Result:
Single, 1 run scores

AB No. 8:

Sequence:
Pitch Clock Violation (0-1, Called Strike)
Slider (0-2, Called Strike)
Curveball (0-2, Foul)
Slider (1-2, Ball)
Curveball (2-2, Ball)
Fastball (2-2, Foul)
Slider (2-2, In play, run)
Result:
Triple, 1 run scores

AB No. 9:

Sequence:
Slider (0-1, In play, run)
Result:
Bunt single, 1 run scores

AB No. 10:

Sequence:
Fastball (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (1-1, Called Strike)
Slider (2-1, Ball)
Slider (2-2, Foul)
Slider (2-2, Foul)
Fastball (3-2, Ball)
Slider (3-2, In play, out)
Result:
Groundout (6-3)

Inning Totals:
4/7 first pitch strikes // 35 pitches 22 strikes

Lopez ran into a few issues this inning. He started off the inning with a 5 pitch walk, and every pitch he missed with sailed arm-side. He was then able to grind out a couple at bats to get to 2 outs including a strikeout of Jackson Appel. Lopez then allowed 3 straight hits to the bottom of the lineup to allow 3 runners to score. Watching live it didn't seem like Lopez threw any bad pitches, he simply just got beat on good swings on tough pitches. In hindsight, the one change I'd make is throwing the 1-2 fastball in AB No. 7. He'd just thrown 3 pitches at similar velocity to get to 2 strikes. You don't need to throw anything in the zone until the count evens back up. The batter is going to be protecting down in the count, so going to a curveball or even fastball up at the letters were much better options. Instead Lopez tried to sneak a fastball down and away, but it was laced to center field for the base hit and RBI. The next at bat was very hard fought as well. Lopez got ahead 0-2 quickly and did a good job of fighting to keep the count at 2-2 later in the at bat. He allowed a "triple" on a slider that was inside off the plate that the batter was simply able to turn on. It was a well hit ball, but really should have been a double. RF Yeison Morrobel was slow getting the ball back in which allowed the runner to advance to third. In a certified Minor League Moment™️ that mistake ended up being a costly one, as the very next batter bunted a slider on a suicide squeeze for a base hit and resulted in the third RBI of the inning. Lopez got out of the inning on a groundout to the next batter, but a series of unfortunate events led to a much more maligned 2nd inning.

I would have loved to see Lopez come back out for the 3rd inning and have a good bounce back clean inning, but unfortunately mother nature had other plans as rain led to the game being suspended until the next day. However, not before the Spartanburgers took the lead back in the 3rd on a 3 run double right before the umpires suspended play. I could make excuses for Lopez when talking about how there were several occasions it looked like the umpire was squeezing him, or the fact that the third run shouldn't have even been in position to score from third base in the first place, but in reality the whole situation could have been avoided with better pitch selection in the seventh at bat of the game. It's a learning experience that will only help him in the future. What's most important to me at this stage is: how does the stuff look, is he throwing strikes, and is he missing bats? Overall I thought his stuff looked very good, he threw strikes when he needed to for the most part, and he was getting whiffs. The biggest issue on the night for me was first pitch strikes. 6 out of 10 is not good enough and put him in a disadvantageous situation for most of the second inning. There are certainly areas to improve for Lopez, but there's also a lot to be excited about for his future.

FINAL LINE:
2 innings
3 Hits
3 Runs
1 Walks
3 Strikeouts
46 Pitches // 29 Strikes (63%)
6/10 First Pitch Strikes (60%)

Is this the best showcase game to get doubters to hop on the Leandro Lopez express? Probably not, but I do implore everyone who reads this to do their best to tune into his next outing and make the judgement for yourself. He's exciting to watch, and personally I can't wait for his next start. I'm not one to make my own projections and say he has potential to be a middle of the rotation starter, but I do know that his future is one worth monitoring.