(F)arm Breakdown: David Davalillo vs the Arkansas Travelers

David Davalillo took the mound again for the Frisco Roughriders tonight as he continues his meteoric rise in 2025, this time against the Arkansas Travelers, the AA affiliate of the Seattle Mariners.

David Davalillo, out of Venezuela, signed with the New York Mets in 2021 for $30,000. That deal ended up being voided 2 months later and the Rangers signed Davalillo for $10,000 in June of 2022. He spent 2 years playing in Rookie ball, aside from one start at Low-A Down East at the end of the 2023 season. Davalillo really burst onto the scene in 2024 when he put up a 1.88 ERA in 110.1 innings across Down East and High-A Hickory, striking out 113 and walking only 32. He carried that momentum into the 2025 season, and through 64.1 innings across High-A Hub City and AA Frisco, Davalillo has struck out 82 and walked 14 to a tune of a 2.10 ERA, 2.49 FIP, and a 0.82 WHIP. He's holding opponents to a staggering .163 batting average, along with a 32.6% K% and a 6.0% BB%.

Davalillo sports a six pitch mix. Coming into the year in Hub City he threw a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, slider, and splitter. However, since his promotion to Frisco he's introduced a cutter into his repertoire as well which has some promising early results to the tune of a 50% whiff rate during his first start. He throws both of his fastballs in the low to mid 90's, and they'll touch 96. His sweeper lives in the low 80's, and his curveball is in the mid to high 70's range. The splitter hovers in the mid 80's, and his new cutter is pretty consistently in the 89-91 range. Opinions of his best pitch varies between scouts, but most would point to the splitter. Last year he generated a 58% whiff rate on that pitch alone, and after watching it tonight I can see why. He locates it very well and is able to throw it just over 1,000 RPMs which can sometimes lead to it breaking more glove-side, but it is an absolute nightmare for left-handed hitters. Disgusting, some may call it.

Davalillo is coming off of a rare off-command night where he allowed a season-high 3 walks over his 5 2/3 innings pitched vs the San Antonio Missions. Davalillo did well to limit the damage however, as he only allowed 1 run to score while striking out 4. The outing lowered his Frisco ERA to an impressive 2.28, but he would most certainly want to look to rebound from a command perspective against the Travelers and hope to continue his run of impressive performances.

Now, let's get into the pitch-by-pitch breakdown of David Davalillo’s start last night against the Arkansas Travelers:

1st Inning

AB No. 1: 

Sequence: 
Sinker (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (1-1, Foul)
Curveball (2-1, Ball)
Slider (2-2, Foul)
Slider (2-2, Foul)
Splitter (2-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

AB No. 2:

Sequence:
Cutter (0-1, Swinging Strike)
Cutter (0-2, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (3-1)

AB No. 3: 

Sequence: 
Slider (1-0, Ball)
Slider (1-1, Swinging Strike)
Sinker (1-2, Foul)
Curveball (2-2, Ball)
Slider (2-2, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (6-3)

Inning Totals: 
1/3 first pitch strikes | 13 pitches 9 strikes

2nd Inning

AB No. 4:

Sequence: 
Curveball (1-0, Ball)
Slider (1-1, Called strike)
Splitter (2-1, Ball)
Cutter (2-2, Foul)
Sinker (2-2, Foul)
Splitter (2-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

AB No. 5:

Sequence: 
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Slider (1-1, Ball)
Slider (1-2, Swinging Strike)
Sinker (1-2, Foul)
Slider (1-2, In play, out)
Result: Lineout (L6)

AB No. 6: 

Sequence: 
Splitter (0-1, Called Strike)
Cutter (0-2, Foul)
Splitter (1-2, Ball)
Fastball (1-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

Inning Totals: 
2/3 first pitch strikes | 15 pitches 11 strikes

3rd Inning

AB No. 7:

Sequence: 
Fastball (0-1, Foul)
Curveball (0-2, Called Strike)
Slider (0-2, Foul)
Fastball (1-2, Ball)
Slider (1-2, Foul)
Fastball (2-2, Ball)
Splitter (3-2, Ball)
Curveball (4-2, Ball)
Result: Walk

AB No. 8: 

Sequence: 
Slider (0-1, Called Strike)
Fastball (0-2, In play, no out)
Result: Batter reaches on fielding error by RF, runners on 2nd and 3rd

AB No. 9:

Sequence:
Slider (0-1, Called Strike)
Slider (0-2, Swinging Strike)
Curveball (1-2, Ball)
Splitter (2-2, Ball)
Slider (2-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

AB No. 10:

Sequence:
Curveball (0-1, Called Strike)
Slider (0-2, Swinging Strike)
Splitter (1-2, Ball)
Sinker (2-2, Ball)
Curveball (3-2, Ball)
Slider (3-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

AB No. 11:

Sequence:
Curveball (1-0, Ball)
Cutter (2-0, Ball)
Slider (2-1, Swinging Strike)
Slider (2-2, Foul)
Splitter (2-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

Inning Totals:
4/5 first pitch strikes | 26 pitches 15 strikes

4th Inning

AB No. 12:

Sequence:
Curveball (0-1, Called Strike)
Fastball (1-1, Ball)
Slider (1-2, Swinging Strike)
Splitter (1-2, In play, out)
Result: Popout (P3)

AB No. 13:

Sequence:
Curveball (1-0, Ball)
Curveball (2-0, Ball)
Slider (3-0, Ball)
Fastball (3-1, Called Strike)
Fastball (3-2, Foul)
Sinker (3-2, Foul)
Curveball (4-2, Ball)
Result: Walk

AB No. 14:

Sequence:
Slider (1-0, Ball)
Slider (1-1, Swinging Strike)
Splitter (2-1, Ball)
Splitter (2-2, Called Strike)
Slider (2-2, Foul)
Splitter (2-2, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (5-3)

AB No. 15:

Sequence:
Slider (0-1, In play, out)
Result: Flyout (F8)

Inning Totals:
2/4 first pitch strikes | 18 pitches 11 strikes

FINAL LINE:
4 innings
0 Hits
0 Runs
2 Walks
6 Strikeouts
72 Pitches // 46 Strikes (63.8%)
9/15 First Pitch Strikes (60.0%)

This was quite the interesting evening for Davalillo. He goes through the first two innings very easily and looks to be in cruise control. He had all his pitches working, and especially his splitter and new cutter looked very good. The 3rd inning is where Davalillo ran into some adversity. The leadoff hitter reached base via a walk where some people (me) would say that it was likely a 5 strike walk. Davalillo's 1-2 fastball and 2-2 splitter both looked like they clipped the bottom outside corner of the zone to get the strikeout looking, but the umpire did not see it that way. Davalillo gets the next batter to hit a fly ball to right field in two pitches, but the right fielder ends up dropping the ball for an error and the runner is able to advance to 3rd base. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs, and the top of the lineup is looming. So what does Davalillo do? Oh, very simply just strike out the side to get out of the inning without allowing a run.

These are the types of outings where you really see what your pitching prospect is made of. It's not a game where he's able to settle in over the course of 6 innings and pick up a good amount of strikeouts. Davalillo faced heavy adversity in the 3rd inning, and was able to battle through it and get 3 incredibly gutsy strikeouts back-to-back-to-back. The inning did make him throw a lot of pitches, so he was limited to 4 innings on the night, but that didn't come as a surprise to me considering how careful the Rangers are with their pitch counts on the farm. Davalillo did not allow a hit in his 4 innings of work, and looked genuinely impressive and in command on the mound. Yes, you'd generally like to see the strike rate a little higher, but with the umpire he had tonight I really can't fault him for that. I can count on 1 hand the amount of true waste pitches Davalillo threw. Even when he missed the zone they were good pitches that you can still use as a tunnel later in the at bat. His cutter is turning into a real weapon for Davalillo and really opens up his splitter even more to left-handed hitters.

David Davalillo lowered his Frisco ERA to 1.99 after his outing tonight, and it honestly would not surprise me if we see him get a September promotion to AAA Round Rock. Davalillo is a without a doubt a future rotation piece for this Rangers organization, and tonight his mental makeup was on full display. He mixes his entire arsenal, and trusts each of his pitches in any count which makes him incredibly difficult to face. He's a top 10 prospect on both MLB Pipeline as well as Baseball America, and if you tune into any of his starts later this season, I promise you you'll understand why.