(F)arm Breakdown: Leandro Lopez vs the Rome Emperors

I watched every pitch of Leandro Lopez’s start last night so you didn't have to. If you haven't yet you should check out the profile I wrote last week about Lopez which also included a breakdown of his weather-shortened outing.

As a refresher on Lopez, the right-handed pitcher out of the Dominican Republic signed in the Texas Rangers 2021 international free agent class. After spending the ’21 and ’22 seasons playing in the Dominican Summer League he played stateside in 2023 at Single-A Down East where he finished the year with a 3.32 ERA in 57 innings pitched, along with 79 strikeouts to 38 walks. An injury riddled 2024 limited him to only 13 innings, but he's come back in 2025 with a vengeance. After his start yesterday he's now sporting a 2.19 ERA in 65.2 innings with 73 strikeouts to 26 walks. He's also limiting hitters to a .199 batting average against, and a 1.10 WHIP.

Lopez hurls a 5 pitch mix, but he usually sticks to a main 4 of fastball, sinker, slider/cutter, and a curveball. He also has a changeup that's coming along, but it's mainly those 4 that he throws most often. He'll get up to 98 on both his fastballs, but usually sits around 94-96. His gyro cutter/slider (whichever you prefer to call it) sits in the high 80's, and his 3,000 RPM curveball ranges anywhere from 79 to 84.

Enough backstory, let's go through the pitch-by-pitch sequences from Leandro Lopez’s start last night against the Rome Emperors, as well as talk about how the outing as a whole went:

AB No. 1:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Slider (0-2, Foul Tip)
Curveball (0-2, Foul)
Fastball (1-2, Ball)
Curveball (2-2, Ball)
Fastball (2-2, Foul)
Slider (3-2, Ball)
Curveball (3-2, Foul)
Changeup (3-3, Called Strike)
Result: Strikeout (ꓘ)

AB No. 2:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (4-3)

AB No. 3:

Sequence:
Curveball (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (1-1, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (1-2, Foul)
Fastball (2-2, Ball)
Slider (3-2, Ball)
Curveball (3-2, Foul)
Sinker (3-2, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (6-3)

Inning Totals:
2/3 first pitch strikes | 17 pitches 11 strikes

AB No. 4:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, In play, out)
Result: Popout (F4)

AB No. 5:

Sequence:
Slider (0-1, In play, out)
Result: Flyout (F9)

AB No. 6:

Sequence:
Fastball (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (1-1, Called Strike)
Fastball (1-2, Swinging Strike)
Slider (1-2, In play, no out)
Result: Double

AB No. 7:

Sequence:
Curveball (1-0, Ball)
Slider (2-0, Ball)
Slider (2-1, Called Strike)
Sinker (2-2, Called Strike)
Fastball (3-2, Ball)
Slider (3-3, Called Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)

Inning Totals:
2/4 first pitch strikes | 12 pitches 8 strikes

AB No. 8:

Sequence:
Fastball (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (1-1, In play, out)
Result: Lineout (L9)

AB No. 9:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Foul)
Slider (0-2, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (1-3)

AB No. 10:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, In play, out)
Result: Lineout (L7)

Inning Totals:
2/3 first pitch strikes | 5 pitches 4 strikes

AB No. 11:

Sequence:
Curveball (1-0, Ball)
Slider (1-1, Foul)
Curveball (2-1, Ball)
Fastball (3-1, Ball)
Slider (3-2, Foul)
Slider (4-2, Ball) (questionable)
Result: Walk

AB No. 12:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, In play, out)
Result: Flyout (F7)

AB No. 13:

Sequence:
Slider (1-0, Ball)
Sinker (1-1, In play, out)
Result: Flyout (F9)

AB No. 14:

Sequence:
Slider (1-0, Ball)
Slider (1-1, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (6-3)

Inning Totals:
1/4 first pitch strikes | 11 pitches 5 strikes

AB No. 15:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Sinker (0-2, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (6-3)

AB No. 16:

Sequence:
Fastball (1-0, Ball)
Fastball (2-0, Ball)
Sinker (2-1, Foul)
Curveball (2-2, Swinging Strike)
Slider (2-2, Foul)
Fastball (3-2, Ball)
Fastball (4-2, Ball)
Result: Walk

AB No. 17:

Sequence:
Slider (0-1, Called Strike)
Sinker (0-2, Foul)
Curveball (1-2, Ball)
Fastball (1-2, Foul)
Slider (1-2, In play)
Result: Single, Runner advances to 2nd

AB No. 18:

Sequence:
Fastball (1-0, Ball)
Curveball (1-1, Curveball)
Sinker (1-2, Foul)
Slider (1-2, In play, out)
Result: Groundout (6-3), Runners advance

AB No. 19:

Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, In play, out)
Result: Flyout (F7)

Inning Totals:
3/5 first pitch strikes | 19 pitches 13 strikes

5 innings
2 Hits
0 Runs
2 Walks
2 Strikeouts
64 Pitches | 41 Strikes (64%)
10/19 First Pitch Strikes (52.6%)

Lopez was flying all night. It started off a little slow as he started out the game with a 9 pitch at bat, but he was able to drop in a backdoor changeup to get the strikeout looking. He got through the rest of the inning with no trouble, and it was off to the races from there. In the 2nd inning he got 2 outs on the first 2 pitches before allowing a 2 out oppo double down the left field line. No damage was done however, as Lopez was able to immediately get his second strikeout of the night to get out of the inning. The 3rd and 4th innings continued the trend of efficient innings for Lopez, as he got through the 3rd inning on 5 pitches, and after a leadoff walk in the 4th he responded by getting the next 3 batters out on 5 pitches once again. The 5th inning was Lopez's longest since the 1st inning. He made a lot of good pitches, but credit to the Emperors for putting up good at bats. The inning started with a quick groundout, but Lopez then walked the next batter after he was unable to land the fastball at the top of the zone. Lopez quickly got ahead 0-2 to the next batter, but credit where it's due, he was able to poke a well located down and away slider out into right field to advance the runner into scoring position. A groundout to the next batter advanced both runners one base further. However, they weren't there long as Lopez was able to get a first pitch flyout to end the inning. Lopez's night ended there at 64 pitches. He likely could have gone longer, but his start last week was cut short by rain at 40 pitches. The Rangers often protect their farm arms as much as possible, so it was always unlikely he would be allowed to throw more than 70.

Lopez had his full arsenal working tonight. He had very few waste pitches, as only a few were spiked glove-side. He made a good adjustment after his last start his slider and fastball often ran away arm-side. Lopez lacked a ton of whiffs tonight, but he made up for it by living in the zone with all of his pitches and being incredibly efficient with his pitch count. Both of his walks were in 3-2 counts, and I would argue his first walk should have been a strikeout but the umpire didn't give him the call at the bottom of the zone. If there's one area I would like to see Lopez improve upon, it would be first pitch strikes. 52% first pitch strike rate is simply much lower than what you'd like to see from him at the High-A level. He can sometimes get himself behind in counts which in turn leads to longer at bats. Before a move to the next level I would really like to see him get that rate closer to 60% if not 65%, as I feel like that could really unlock his potential as a starting pitcher.

His mechanics are very smooth and repeatable, and he moves down the mound with a sense of purpose. He mixes his pitches intelligently, uses the entirety of the strike zone, and tunnels his pitches quite well. Often times you can see in young pitchers that they can let an inning spiral out of control if something doesn't go according to plan, but Lopez appears unflappable. He always looks in command, and if someone gets on base he immediately places all focus on the next at bat. Whenever I watch him pitch I can't help but see Winston Santos, and I don't think it'll be much longer before we start to see the same level of attention Santos gets being paid Lopez's way. It's time to start keeping an eye on him if you aren't already.