The battle of exit velocity vs. results for the Texas Rangers

Frustrations around the Rangers’ offense continue. After a great road trip to start the season, the Globe Life Field park factor seemingly came into play vs. the Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners. Over six games played, only 12 runs were scored. Somehow, three wins came out of that, all against the Mariners.

The early question of “How is this any different than last season?” is a fair one. Familiar faces are once again struggling through two weeks. Joc Pederson and Josh Jung got off to large O-fer starts. Josh Smith is not producing at all after taking over the full-time job at second base. Even Wyatt Langford, who mashed during spring training and was thought to be on the brink of a breakout season, cannot buy a consistent string of hits.

Still, there appears to be hope something will change in the near future. One stat, in particular, seems to be the buzzword around the Rangers right now as the reasoning. Exit velocity.

Simply put, the Rangers are getting a lot of hard contact on their swings. Like, at an elite level when comparing it to the rest of baseball. Following Wednesday’s win vs. the Mariners, the Rangers sat second in MLB with an average exit velocity of 90.8. Only the Kansas City Royals are better at 91.0.

Here is the somewhat usual top six in the batting order and their average exit velo, followed by the percentile per Baseball Savant.

• Brandon Nimmo - 89.8 mph (47th)
• Wyatt Langford - 90.4 mph (64th)
• Corey Seager - 92.7 mph (87th)
• Jake Burger - 92.0 mph (78th)
• Joc Pederson - 94.4 mph (95th)
• Evan Carter - 90.4 mph (64th)

Of those, you would say Nimmo and Burger are playing above expectations based on their results-based stats. Seager and Carter, relative to their level, could put out just a little bit more. Langford and Pederson are really struggling and will need to step things up in the long run.

So, why do those exit-velocity numbers give them faith they will get those results? Just look at last year’s numbers from the Rangers. There was no hiding how bad the offense was, and not just from a results standpoint. Not enough hard contact came throughout the season. The average exit velo sat at 89.2 mph, bottom 10 across baseball (tied with multiple teams).

Running it back with individual players, here's how the exit velo numbers looked in 2025. This is without Brandon Nimmo, who played for the New York Mets.

• Wyatt Langford - 91.4 mph (82nd)
• Corey Seager - 92.9 mph (93rd)
• Jake Burger - 90.4 mph (59th)
• Joc Pederson - 91.2 mph (N/A)
• Evan Carter - 86.7 mph (N/A)

You can see the significant differences for the bottom three guys. Which is why the team number is so much better for the Rangers. Burger, Pederson, and Carter are making a lot more hard contact in 2026. Another sign of improvement.

This turned into a topic of discussion during Wednesday’s RSN broadcast. Which led to color commentator David Murphy bringing up a fair point. With some paraphrasing, he said, “If you asked guys at spring training what stat they want to lead baseball in this season, exit velocity is not the answer.” He later jokingly added, “Who wants to lead the league in process?”

Because looking at exit velocity is trusting that your process is going in the right direction. Good swings are being put together with hard contact off really good pitchers. Those moments are supposed to turn into positive results on a routine basis. In theory, they will eventually come.

“Obviously, it's frustrating not getting hits,” Pederson said on Sunday after his home run vs. the Reds. “We play this game and get results. But I've been swinging at strikes, been taking balls, been hitting some balls decently, and they just haven't fallen. That's part of it. You stick with that process over the time, it's gonna work out like it has in my career.”

The confusing part about exit velocity is that it’s not an end-all, be-all stat. Just look at Nimmo, who drove in two runs on Wednesday just by putting the ball in play at 59 mph. Connor Joe had to make a tough play with the bases loaded and committed an error. Nimmo got the job done with a dribbler, while a handful of deep flyballs off Bryan Woo got caught near the wall and turned into nothing.

Ultimately, results matter more than anything. 

From a win/loss perspective, the results are not too bad. The Rangers are 7-5 and lead the AL West. Relative to preseason expectations for the four teams faced, it’s about as good as you could hope for. But three or four of those wins certainly feel like what played out last season. Elite starting pitching, the bullpen comes through, while the offense sputters. We’ve seen it not be sustainable through 162 games.

It’s easy to see why folks in Arlington feel confident a breakthrough is coming, though. The Rangers have a telling stat that they are greatly improved in, at least when compared to other MLB teams. At some point, you have to believe those routinely hard-hit balls are going to drop into a gap, go over someone’s head, or fly into the seats. Those turn into more comfortable wins, which is what everyone involved in the organization expects this season.