(F)arm Breakdown: AJ Russell vs the Wilmington Blue Rocks
I think it's safe to say it's been an eventful 24 hours for AJ Russell. He was scheduled to make another start for Low-A Hickory against Myrtle Beach, but a fire overnight in the visitors clubhouse caused the rest of this week's games in Hickory to be cancelled. In order to keep Russell on his start schedule, Russell was promoted to Hub City this afternoon and would pitch for Hub City instead.
They say the best ability is availability, but I'd argue there's nothing more important than adaptability, especially for pitchers. In life, it's very rare that things will go exactly how you planned, and that's equally similar on the baseball field. I think one of the most important qualities a player can show is the ability to be adaptable to any situation and stay within themselves to do what they know how to do, and I felt like AJ Russell did a phenomenal job of that today.
AJ Russell was the 2nd round selection for the Texas Rangers in the 2025 MLB Draft. After a few innings of work in the summer at the Rangers Complex in Arizona, Russell was placed in Hickory to start the 2026 season to build up his workload slowly but surely. Russell has started 5 games for Hickory this season where he's allowed 8 hits, 5 runs, 5 walks, and struck out 16 over 9 innings of work.
Russell's arsenal is led by his fastball that averages around 93-94, but he gets up to 96 with. It's an elite pitch, a true 70 grade offering, that averages 15" of induced vertical break and 16" of arm-side run. He has great feel for it in the zone as well as just above, and gets incredible whiff rates for how often he throws it. The reason for its strength is largely in the angle at which it approaches home plate. Russell is 6-foot-6-inches, but has a release height of just 5-feet. This causes his fastball to approach the plate at an angle of -3.9 degrees, which when located at the top of the zone, is incredibly difficult to square up.
Russell backs up his fastball with a trio of secondary offerings. The first of which being a slider that averages 84, which is objectively the best pitch of the 3. It's a bit lift-ier of a slider at 5" of induced vertical break, and 7" of glove-side break. He shows a strong feel for it in the zone, and is comfortable throwing it to either handedness of hitter. He has a changeup that averages 85 with 6" of induced vertical break and 18" of arm-side run. It's a bit inconsistent, but should be an average offering as he gets more reps with it. He rounds out his arsenal with a curveball that averages 77 with -5" of induced vertical break and 10" of glove-side break. He hardly throws it and we'll see if the Rangers want to tinker with the shape a little bit, but it's definitely a work-in-progress.
The Rangers have been slowly building up Russell's workload, given he only pitched 70 career innings in college across his 3 years, and up to this point figured to be on a pitch count of around 50 pitches.
Now, let's get into the pitch-by-pitch breakdown of AJ Russell’s Hub City debut against the Wilmington Blue Rocks:
6th Inning
AB No. 1:
Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Swinging Strike)
Slider (0-2, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (1-2, Ball)
Fastball (1-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)
AB No. 2:
Sequence:
Slider (0-1, Called Strike)
Fastball (1-1, Ball)
Slider (2-1, Ball)
Fastball (2-2, Called Strike)
Fastball (2-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)
AB No. 3:
Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
Slider (1-1, Ball)
Slider (In play, out)
Result: Lineout (L8)
Inning Totals:
3/3 first pitch strikes | 12 pitches 8 strikes
7th Inning
AB No. 4:
Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (0-2, Foul)
Fastball (1-2, Ball)
Slider (1-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)
AB No. 5:
Sequence:
Slider (0-1, Swinging Strike)
Slider (1-1, Ball)
Fastball (1-2, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (1-3, Swinging Strike)
Result: Strikeout (K)
AB No. 6:
Sequence:
Slider (0-1, Called Strike)
Changeup (1-1, Ball)
Fastball (2-1, Ball)
Slider (3-1, Ball)
Fastball (3-2, Called Strike)
Fastball (3-2, Foul)
Fastball (In play, out)
Result: Flyout (F8)
Inning Totals:
3/3 first pitch strikes | 15 pitches 10 strikes
8th Inning
AB No. 7:
Sequence:
Fastball (0-1, Called Strike)
slider (In play, Out)
Result: Groundout (5-3)
AB No. 8:
Sequence:
Slider (0-1, Called Strike)
Slider (0-2, Swinging Strike)
Fastball (0-2, Foul)
Fastball (0-2, Foul)
Curveball (1-2, Ball)
Slider (2-2, Ball)
Fastball (2-2, Ball)
Fastball (2-2, Foul)
Slider (In play, Out)
Result: Foul Popout (F2)
AB No. 9:
Sequence:
Slider (0-1, Foul)
Fastball (0-2, Foul)
Fastball (1-2, Ball)
Slider (In play, Out)
Result: Flyout (F9)
Inning Totals:
3/3 First Pitch Strikes | 15 Pitches 12 Strikes
FINAL LINE:
3 innings
0 Hits
0 Runs
0 Walks
4 Strikeouts
42 Pitches || 30 Strikes (71.4%)
9/9 First Pitch Strikes (100%)
I don't think it could have gone much better for AJ Russell in his debut outing. Russell pitched out of the bullpen today, something he has experience doing from his time at Tennessee, pitching in relief of Ismael Agreda. Russell pitched the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings, and was perfect. No, literally, he pitched 9-up 9-down.
From the start you could tell that Russell had it. He was composed, and was locating his fastball really well at the top of the zone. He topped out at 96 with his fastball, and flashed some impressive sliders as well. That slider almost acts as more of a cutter the way it gets in on left-handed hitters. I was really impressed with his ability to land it in the zone as well as staying competitive on the misses.
He was exclusively fastball/slider in the 6th inning, but did show a changeup and curveball later in the game. One thing I will say is that as his pitch count grows, he will need to utilize his changeup and curveball more. He got himself into some long counts in the 7th and 8th innings that made it feel like he was lacking another pitch he was confident in to show to hitters.
Time will tell if Russell ends up staying up with Hub City or if he heads back down to Hickory when they hit the road next week, but honestly after a performance like that I don't know how you can't keep him with Hub City. 3 perfect innings with 4 strikeouts, picking up his first career professional win, and looking quite calm and poised while doing so. There's still work to do for Russell, but the right-hander is mightily impressive.
