How Muddy Are These MLB Draft Waters?
Baseball America's latest MLB mock Draft is out and they have the Rangers taking pitcher Cameron Flukey. He only falls this far down because he missed a substantial part of the season due to a rib injury and has struggled in a couple of games since returning. He should be fine though.
Besides Flukey, they have the following guys remaining when the Rangers pick:
Sawyer Strosnider OF TCU
Brody Bumila LHP High School
Derek Curiel OF LSU
Mason Edwards LHP USC
Carson Boleman LHP High School
Will Brick C High School
Any of the seven guys I have mentioned could make a good pick for the Rangers. Another name to watch is OF Aiden Robbins from UT. Baseball America has Robbins going at #25.
One thing to note about this draft is how crazy the differences are between the recent mock drafts. Joe Doyle has recently stated:
"I can’t remember a muddier draft than this one. Guys that could go No. 6 could go No. 26. Guys that have an argument to go in the Top 10 have reasons not to be selected in the Top 50. Feels really messy right now."
The first 4 or 5 guys are usually the same even though some may have them in a slightly different order. A couple of the #6 to #10 picks are consistently in that range in most of the mock drafts I have looked at, but even in that range there have been vast differences. Once you get past the top 10 0r 11 picks in this draft, there are often some huge differences of opinions. There are even a few draft prospects that some rankers have in the top ten, that other rankers have going significantly later.
I have followed the draft very closely for the last 6 years, and I have never seen this much difference of opinion. Add to that the fact that the Rangers historically do not follow the same thinking as many of those who do mock drafts, and there will be a huge range of possibilities to guess from when trying to decide what the Rangers will do.
Neither Malcolm Moore nor Gavin Fein should have been picked by the Rangers according to what I had been reading in those years, and yet they did pick those guys. It is hard to imagine just how far off the Rangers pick will be from what Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, Keith Law, Prospects Live, ESPN and others will project for the 16th pick this year. It is also possible that someone who is shown to be the 7th to 10th best draft prospect by several rankers, could be picked by the Rangers at #16.
Mock Draft Updates
I have looked at eight different recent mock drafts over the last couple of weeks. There are two players who are repeaters when it cones to the Rangers selection at #16 in the first round. Alabama SS, Justin Lebron, appears on three different mock drafts as going to the Rangers. Coastal Carolina RHP, Cameron Flukey, appears on two mock drafts as going to the Rangers. It should be noted that Keith Law, in his mock draft notes, mentioned that he could see the rangers drafting Flukey even though he mocked Lebron to them. The other three draft prospects mocked to the Rangers in this latest round of mock drafts are the following: Chris Hacopian, 2B, from Texas A&M; Brody Bumila, LHP, from Bishop Feehan HS, Massachusetts; Ace Reese, 3B, from Mississippi State. Of these guys, I would rather have Flukey or Bumila.
Two of the recent mock drafts went as far as the second round. In those two mocks, one had the Rangers selecting Tre Phelps, 3B, from Georgia in the second round. The other one had the Rangers selecting Kaden Waechter, RHP from Jesuit HS in Florida in the second round. In one of the mocks for the second round, my personal favorite, Will Brick, went one selection before the Rangers pick.
In a few weeks I will begin to do draft profiles on a handful of the draft prospects who appear to have the best chances of being drafted by the Rangers. For now, at least, the possibilities are wide open. Hopefully, these muddy waters clear up some as we approach the draft so we can start narrowing down the possibilities. As we get closer to the draft, and more updated mock drafts and draft boards are released, things should clear up to some degree. We will find out for sure in just about two more months.
